United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (AMEX:UNG)

This one I've bought in real-life, yesterday 2/1/12. My investment thesis: though there is a current oversupply of Nat Gas, our U.S. producers, like CHK (love that one and own it too) are now striving to sell gas overseas to higher-paying, high-margin, foreign markets. That's going to help lower the glut that has been partially due to oversupply, a lack of utilization by truck fleets, passenger cars, you name it, (btw, don't ever rely on the U.S. gov't passing a bill in order for your investment to work, because they might just not do it and your thesis then circles the drain while mired in Washington's un-ending gridlock. There are too many other good investments that don't require governmental invtervention, so seek those out first). And we don't need to rely on the gov't here. So this Winter was mild. Big deal. I'm going out on a limb here - I think the cold weather will eventually be back, don't you? Plus, it's always cold in some part of the world, Earth's rotational axis and such being as it is - I didn't go out too far on this limb either. No doubt, Nat. Gas is going to be used for a lot more than heating, but we can make money on it before it is greatly adopted for vehicles, etc. So, producers are cutting back their production, whilst negotiating sales overseas. That will help turn the tide and raise the value of gas. Furthermore, commodities are best bought when they are ice cold, completely un-sexy. Could UNG be much colder? (pun intended, it's hot, its gas, come on.) No, it's in a multi-year low, a malaise that will require aforementioned supply to unwind a bit. However, I'm not brilliant enough to call the absolute "bottom," of a commodity (please reply here if you are that one megaminded person). However, pull the trigger now and wait for the investment to blossom. How very Foolish.