Grand Canyon Education (NASDAQ:LOPE)

It's a very simple play, for profit colleges are enrolling ever fewer students because they are not only expensive, but of dubious value. This is not something seen at just one college, but look at all the for profits. They may beat eps, but ever declining new students will mean continue decline in earnings creating a vicious cycle of ever lower p/e. Until they fundamentally prove their worth and get it out, I don't see how they are going to succeed in the long term.

With only a few exceptions, the for-profit education sector is doomed, especially those which are heavily dependent on online revenue. Ultimately their doom won't be attributable to government intervention; that might just speed up the inevitable. The problem is competition from traditional universities, which are increasingly running for-profit ventures, as I've seen firsthand in the education industry. Competition from real universities is something most investors don't understand: most of these traditional schools are now offering online and continuing education courses, often in remote parts of the globe, that use precisely the same business models that outfits like Phoenix are using. Universities finance their traditional programs out of these for-profit enterprises. These schools have a huge leg up on the for-profit colleges: (a) zero taxes on endowment gains; (b) a reputable name/accreditation; (c) government support in the form of subsidies, grants, etc. Meanwhile, the for-profit schools only have tons of research showing that for-profit schools are the equivalent of quicksand for students. The only thing that the for-profit schools have going for them is the insistence that the free market can do everything more efficiently -- to which one can only reply: the traditional colleges have already figured that one out for themselves, and are heavily invested in for-profit strategies already.