Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

Overall based upon accelerating (home & business) foreclosures, financial weakness in the banking sector, tremendous tax increases on the horizon (suppressing the economy), and a federal spending policy that can only result in double digit inflation, I expect the economy (& stock prices) to decline over the remainder of 2009 and through 2010 at the least.

So the question is not whether JNJ goes up or down but by how it does in relation to the S&P500. JNJ's sterling financial strength and proven management team provides it a great deal of protection against possible declines in the economy. In fact any company with strong financials should perform better than the market average in a down economy.

Now with the prospect of a government run health care bill raising punitive taxes upon any company in that sector, expect the price to remain depressed until everything sorts out. Still given the fact that JNJ has a lot of non-health care related business over which it can distribute those taxes, it should not be as adversely affected as say PFE or MRK.

So I expect the stock price to remain depressed over the short term (giving you time to buy the stock) with a nice bump if Congress fails to pass something before the end of the year. In the mid-term, conservative management, good management, and good financial strength will preserve stock price values better than other S&P500 companies. In the long-term expect JNJ stock prices to rise when the economy improves in line with other companies.

Overall, I'd say that JNJ is a safe bet with reasonable upside and limited downside.