Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd (EXM)

EXm and most bulk shippers are full of cash. It costs abt Uss 8000.00 a day to run a ship,and the market is paying 85000.00 Uss per day for a Panamax on a one yeaar charter,if its less than 8 yars in age.I recently saw a fixture for a ship being constructed and to be delivered in late 2009 at a figure similar to above. The index is now at 9200 after being at 11500 or so.A cape size vessel of abt 170000,00 dwt fetches Uss 150000,00 a day after having reached figures of uss 200.000,00 five months ago.The other sideof the equation is what a ship costs to build or buy,and the financing involved.Ships have gone up in price five times on the used market bcse owners will only let an older one go (at a handsome profit) if they can get hold of a newer ship to replace it.Unless the bottom falls out ofcommodities,I see no risk to buy exm between 33.00 and 45.00,and if u want to be safe buy tomorrow at 36.00 and sell the sept 40.00 call at ard Uss 4.00 dropping yr cost to 32.00.If its worth more than 40.00 and u loose it u made abt 27% in 73 days.This stock has too many Panamax on long charter till 2010 with Bunge at Uss 24000,00 a day (originally fxd with Quintana),so lets hope the market holds steady so they can get some capital appreciation on the vessels.