Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)

Surprised by the esteem with which CLNE is held at CAPS. Pickens and Pelosi and "clean energy" plays understood. But mgmt is gambling big with government subsidy business model. Really needs lots of cash to continue to grow and the stock price is dependent on rapid growth - I don't believe the actual growth prospects map to growth expectations that bulls assign to the company.

CLNE's last capital raise involved tremendous dilution to investors, and that was before the crashes of late 2008 and their impact on businesses seeking capital. CLNE needs to raise cash in the very near term (or not grow and become a business valued an order magnitude below its curent market cap), and I expect, if CLNE is able to raise cash, it will be at a tremendously dilutive cost to current investors (with another unit offering consisting of shares at a discount to market and warrants with significant price protection). Huge current overhang of stock-equivalnets if the stock recovers significantly; I believe that overhang will be materially increased in the next capital raise.

But the board and mgmt are very well paid (equity and cash)! Particualrly Pickens who gets large equity grants for service ('cause his majority ownership interest apparently doesn't provide enough incentive to devote attention to the business). I believe serious pain for current shareholders looms.

Disclosure: No current real money position, but I keep looking for opportunities to take an effective short position. Neither shorting outright nor option plays present themselves to those unwilling to take on very significant positions and risk, and to commit significant capital.