Cerus Corp (NASDAQ:CERS)

out perform pick.

A 30% upward run this month leaves Cerus primed for a rapid decline once reality returns to the broad markets. I've followed Cerus for almost five years, and even spotted them an ill-fated green thumb back in 2007 prior to the steepest part of their decline. At that time I was optimistic that the company would manage positive phase III data and approval of their Intercept system for platelets and plasma in the US, and that they would work out the problems in development of Intercept for red blood cells.

Almost five years later none of those things have happened. The company has been making noises about a phase III trial of Intercept for RBC but there's no timeline for trial initiation. Intercept quarterly revenues are in the 6-7M range, up from the 3-4M lows of 2009. But a quarterly burn of 5-7M continues unabated, the share count has increased significantly from 2007, and cash reserves are once again approaching the danger zone. In short, I'm not seeing any justification for the recent share price increase besides the unpredictable movement of a small cap stock in a rising tide.