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  • S&P 500: 1,091.38
  • Change: -0.32%
$103,250.00 -645.00 (-0.62%)
11/20/2009 4:00 PM

Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. (BRK-A)

CAPS Rating:
*****

A holding company owning subsidiaries engaged in a number of diverse business activities, including property and casualty insurance and reinsurance, utilities and energy, finance, manufacturing, retailing and services.

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What the Community Thinks

Total Members

3007 Outperforms
77 Underperforms
 

All-Stars

1068 Outperforms
24 Underperforms
 

Wall Street

9 Outperforms
0 Underperforms
 

Members bullish on BRK-A are also bullish on:

Members bearish on BRK-A are also bearish on:

Ticker Tags

Cyclical (3522), Financials (1308), Omaha (5), Behemoth (31), Nebraska (7), CEO over 70 (6), Casualty Insurance (76), Diversified Conglomerate (16), Mega Cap (115), Insurance and Reinsurance (15), Conglomerates (16), Insurance (167)
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Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. At A Glance

Current Price: $103,250.00
Last Trade Time: 11/20/2009 4:00 PM
Open: $103,210.00
Previous Close: $103,895.00
Daily Range: $103,095.00 - $103,750.00
52-Week Range: $74,100.00 - $151,650.00
Volume: 691
Market Cap: $104.63B
P/E Ratio: 31.50
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Stock Trends

BRK-A VS S&P 500 (SPY)

News & Discussion Boards

Top Bull Pitch

Recs

5

Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. (BRK-A)

Avatar bullishbabo (100.00) Submitted: 5/07/09 12:13 AM

Berkshire Hathaway is a collection of cash-producing companies and other holdings. On average, the holdings are above average companies. If you ask me, a collection of above-average companies will tend to beat the S&P 500 over time. Would I own any of these stocks on my own? Probably not, since I...More

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Top Bear Pitch

Recs

1

Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. (BRK-A)

Avatar Barebonez (95.33) Submitted: 6/17/09 7:12 PM

I agree with Doug Kass here

After a two-month period of improving breadth and an advance that approached 38%, it appears that the upward momentum of the market is finally being tested. Typically, overbought markets are corrected in brief order, and four to five weeks seems to be the historical prec...More

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Recs

0

 (BRK-A)

Avatar Hairetikos (42.33) Submitted: 11/10/09 12:31 PM : Outperform Start Price: $102150.00 BRK-A Score: 0.79

Size allows BRK to get better deals than anyone else. Experienced management with great track-record.

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Recs

0

 (BRK-A)

Avatar yankeenick (< 20) Submitted: 11/10/09 1:01 AM : Outperform Start Price: $103000.00 BRK-A Score: 0.13

Some random ideas I pieced together:

Free Money from Fed (For His Competitors)
Wall Street is receiving a huge and free "float" to invest from the Government, whereas BRK & Insurance subsidiaries are forced to play by the rules. Temporarily, this "free float" erodes BRK's long-established competitive advantage when compared to many alternative investors. BRK has spent decades building its float, and when the Fed finally tightens money supply, the float (or rather, moat) will be re-established. This could take years though.

Buffett's Age & Culture
Despite the most substantial succession planning of any company, possibly ever (GE/Jack Welch comes to mind), this will always weigh and possibly bring down the multiples paid for BRK. Still, I find this odd. Buffett doesn't sell businesses that often, holds shares for many many years - even if Buffett was gone tomorrow, you are getting $80k of book value and likely $150-200k of intrinsic value for $103k/share. It is a STEAL. The stock is trading at a major discount whereas it should simply be trading on a parts-of-the-whole bread and butter analysis. Hell if Buffett was 55, the stock would belong at $220k/share.

Operating Businesses
His operating businesses are not sexy (other than Geico), but most of them have well established moats and should bounce back nicely. Geico's free float is always nice, as is $6k/share in earnings from these businesses in a trough year. I think it only gets better from here, with better than averages businesses that deserve a premium to S&P.

Puts on the Market
This is actually one of the catalyst to stock over-performance over the next few years. The puts Buffett sold where he pocketed $4.7B will continue to reverse themselves with even a modicum of inflation and investment gains on those dollars. Let's look at the scenarios:
1) Markets go to 0 and BRK owes $37B. I'll go ahead and say that if all the major world markets go to 0, then we're probably on a barter system or marshall law. Or possibly we're all zombies.
2) Markets are where they are today. Assuming BRK was able to get a 6% rate of return for the decade, and they're maybe 10% underwater today (based on Buffett's most recent shareholder letter), and BRK would walk away with $8.4B - $3.7B = $4.6B. Not a dollar in, but $4.6B out - in a pretty negative case. And about that 6% return on equity -- well that sounds a lot like BNI (even assuming a "lost-decade").
3) Markets are far above where they are today in 2019, possibly due to global inflation or for growth. Either way, he does not pay out a dime on the contracts. In that instance, assuming he has had a more aggressive return (i.e. 10% like GE), he's but up $12.2B - JUST LIKE THAT. There is no 'capital outlay'. No 'investment'. With a 12% IRR, its closer to $16B, or $10k of book value or CASH per share.

The puts have risk -- and every investor should ask themselves what is more likely, collapse of everything, or steady inflation to reduce the value of the world's bad contracts, thereby increasing the value of the market? Don't punish him for the 1% chance, even if it was relatively recent.

BNI
BNI Acquisition will earn solid ROE even at awful rail utilization levels. When the market swings the other way in volume, likely to coincide with higher gas prices, rails will have assets to deploy. In a peak year with high gas prices (i.e. 2013-2015), BNI could earn $10+/share (BNI share) through continual 10% increases in price & huge increases in volume. Coal is to Base Power Now as Trains are to Base Transport in the Future. It's really the "ultimate" private equity deal - and likely a worst-case 2x investment over the next decade, or a good-chance 4-5x investment, with unbelievable downside protection, assets, and inflation-pricing power.

I'd also encourage you to look at the land/track value of BNI. Cost to replicate would be closer to $100B. Sure those assets have a bad ROA, but what's important is ROE. Oh and every dollar of capex in that company is worth it. It's like building the lines of the Internet in 1980 -- they should make every preparation for the green-driven shift from truckers to rail within transport - even if it takes a decade.

However, BNI will work against BRK for the next few quarters as people say he overpaid and we continue on a trough for a few years. When the economy is back, BRK shareholders will have final laugh.

Couple other thoughts:
I think the 50:1 split with Class B is actually because he wants better coverage by the analyst community. A simple parts-of-whole analysis that GE gets every few months is rarely done with BRK in a detailed manner. With more people trading and covering him, he expects professional investors to also step up the game in analyzing BRK.

Can't say enough good things about BNI. It's a business that will be around and most likely owned by BRK when my children are grandparents. And it will likely be one of the most valuable businesses in America - perhaps eclipsing BRK's other assets. Of course by then, America will be demanding a windfall tax on Railroads because they'll be the new Exxon Mobil.

I still like the GE warrants BRK picked up - although it will take 24-30 months for those to do well for him. Still love the 10% coupon more.

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Recs

0

 (BRK-A)

Avatar smittyhaggis (28.00) Submitted: 11/03/09 4:15 PM : Outperform Start Price: $101100.00 BRK-A Score: -1.59

It's Buffet baby!

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Recs

0

 (BRK-A)

Avatar globalsailor (71.26) Submitted: 10/28/09 5:51 PM : Outperform Start Price: $100300.00 BRK-A Score: -1.09

The ratio on brk-a and brk-b is totally off. Should be 200:1 not 30:1

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Recs

0

 (BRK-A)

Avatar philosopherone (32.21) Submitted: 10/25/09 4:23 PM : Outperform Start Price: $100000.00 BRK-A Score: 2.11

Warren Buffet is the Greatest!

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Wall Street

Results 1 - 9 of 9  

picks per page. CHANGE Expand All Pitches

Top
Pick		Member NameMember RatingStart
Date		CallTime FrameStart
Price		Stock
Gain		S&P
Gain		ScorePitch
TrackMHawkins 63.90 07/17/09 Outperform 1Y $90,450.00+14.15%+16.90%-2.75 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
TrackChrisDavis < 20 06/03/08 Outperform 1Y $131,500.00-21.48%-18.53%-2.95 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
TrackTomGayner 35.16 04/10/08 Outperform NS $131,800.00-21.66%-16.85%-4.81 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
TrackChuckAkre 50.96 09/30/07 Outperform NS $118,510.00-12.88%-24.86%+11.98 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
TrackWWeitz 65.74 09/30/07 Outperform NS $118,510.00-12.88%-24.86%+11.98 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
TrackDodgeCox 88.49 09/30/07 Outperform NS $118,510.00-12.88%-24.86%+11.98 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
TrackEveillard 88.00 09/30/07 Outperform NS $118,510.00-12.88%-24.86%+11.98 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
TrackRonBaron < 20 09/30/07 Outperform NS $118,510.00-12.88%-24.86%+11.98 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
TrackBerkowitz 82.69 09/30/07 Outperform NS $118,510.00-12.88%-24.86%+11.98 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies

Results 1 - 9 of 9  

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